PowerPoint and Video of Keynes vs Hayek (May 16th NSF Meeting)


KEYNES VERSUS HAYEK:

POWERPOINT AND VIDEO

 

We were very fortunate last week to hear a spirited discussion between two very talented and nationally renowned economists/entrepreneurs, Atul Minocha and Jerry O’Driscoll. The two presented very different perspectives on rejuvenating our weak economy that we characterized as “Keynes versus Hayek”.

Indeed, Atul “Keynes” Minocha argued that the current deficit is not our most serious problem, instead recommending more targeted stimulus spending on education and infrastructure. Jerry “Hayek” O’Driscoll stressed that the national deficit, now over $17 trillion, must be addressed through real austerity measures—which, despite protestations to the contrary—virtually no country has implemented.

In the past many of you have asked if we could videotape the discussions and make them available. Thanks especially to Atul, today we are able to: (1) Post the entire PowerPoint Jerry and Atul used; and, (2) To post the video of the discussion and then the Q&A session. Let’s see how that works.

In addition, for your viewing pleasure, here is a “rap” video entitled, “Hayek and Keynes”, that you may also appreciate.

Lots of work by our crack NSF team to make this happen. Let us know how you like the product.

 

First, here are the PowerPoint presentations:

US FIscal Policy Discussion- Jerry O’Driscoll

Jerry O’Driscoll wishes to acknowledge Juan Carlos Hidalgo of the Cato Institue for his slides.

US FIscal Policy Discussion- Atul Minocha

 

And here is the video of the two presentations

https://vimeo.com/66489291

 

Followed here by the video of the Q&A session

https://vimeo.com/66491964

 

And, finally, the Hayek-Keynes “rap” video:

Click here: The Brilliance of That Hayek vs. Keynes Rap – Jeffrey A. Tucker – Mises Daily

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Two Worrisome Scenarios on the Boston Bombers

TWO WORRISOME SCENARIOS

ON THE BOSTON BOMBERS

 

By Tyrus W. Cobb

There are two divergent portraits of the Tsarnaev brothers that have emerged in the wake of the horrific Boston Marathon bombings the two perpetrated. Both worry me—a lot.

The first depiction described the brothers as extremely disgruntled young men who had deep ties to their ethnic birthplace and religion, the Muslim areas of the former Soviet Union and to the Islamic faith. We initially assumed that the young men had come under the sway of radical teachings at the Mosques in either their native Chechnya or nearby Dagestan. Having conducted such a sophisticated operation it appeared initially that the two likely had extensive preparation at a terrorist training camp in the Caucuses Mountains.

That scenario was worrisome. However, it does not seem to accurately describe the evolution they went through, especially the elder brother. The two had essentially grown up in America, participated in sports, gone to college, had many friends, and loved to party—and smoke marijuana. They had spent little time in Chechnya or Dagestan and do not appear to have had weapons training. While they had darker moments, none of their friends saw them as significantly different–their mood swings seemed typical of youth that age.

In the last year the older brother Tamerlane had become increasingly disaffected with life in America. Their mother and he also had some “religious epiphany”, and were immersing themselves more in prayer and reading the Koran. Younger brother Dzhokhar’s interest and performance in school waned and he drifted more into his brother’s increasingly dark world.

Dropping out, dropping acid, and dropping school are typical of many youth, as is a tendency to find new and deeper meaning in life. Youth will often find solace in various religious streams, as many “Dharma Bums” did with Buddhism in the 1950’s. By and large it was a harmless diversion and most eventually reentered the mainstream of society.

What is different here are two things: First, the attraction of the apocalyptic and uncompromising aspects of Islam and, two, the surprisingly easy access to terror methodology they obtained through the Internet. The Brothers Tsarnaev spent little time hearing the preaching of radical Imams in the Mosques, but even their minor contacts with Islamic fundamentalism seems to have led them, especially Tamerlane, to be swept under the influence of the Jihadist compulsion to violent solutions.

When they searched for ways to conduct their terrorist acts, it was easy to find instructions for bomb-making devices and tactics on the Internet. The brothers apparently read the Islamic internet journal, “Inspire”, regularly, where their new devotion to the global Jihad found expression and encouragement. Further, through Inspire and other sources, they were able, with surprising ease, to create effective weapons of mass destruction.

This is the new world we live in, where disgruntled youth find comfort not in meditation or prayer, but in a Jihad against Western civilization. And with relative ease, they can obtain through open sources on the Internet the knowledge and skills needed to conduct terrorist operations.

We should be worried. Very worried!

  • Tyrus W. Cobb

Three additional viewpoints worth perusing on this topic:

First, this excerpt from a May 5 New York Times article (you can link to the NYT to get the whole piece):

 

May 5, 2013

A Homemade Style of Terror: Jihadists Push New Tactics

By SCOTT SHANE

WASHINGTON — Aware that intensified American counterterrorism efforts have made an ambitious Sept. 11-style plot a long shot, Al Qaeda propagandists for several years have called on their devotees in the United States to carry out smaller-scale solo attacks and provided the online education to teach them how.

The Boston Marathon bombing — which the authorities believe was carried out according to instructions that were posted online — offers an unsettling example of just how devastating such an attack can be, even when the death toll is low. It shows how plotters can construct powerful bombs without attracting official attention. It offers a case study in the complex mix of personality and ideology at work in extremist violence. And it raises a pressing question: Is there any way to detect such plotters before they can act?

So far, the Tsarnaev brothers appear to have been radicalized and instructed in explosives not at a training camp but at home on the Internet. Their bombs were concocted from inexpensive everyday items whose purchase set off no alarms: pressure cookers, nails and ball bearings, gunpowder from fireworks and remote controls for toys. Their choice of an open-air event meant no gate, metal detector or security inspection to pass through with their bombs.

In other words, as Dzhokhar told investigators, they followed the script from Inspire magazine

“The pressurized cooker should be placed in crowded areas and left to blow up,” the manual says. “More than one of these could be planted to explode at the same time.”

One American expert said the brothers might have as much in common with self-radicalized terrorists of completely different ideologies — say, white supremacism or antigovernment extremism — as with the committed Qaeda operatives who organized the Sept. 11 attacks. In the reports on Tamerlan Tsarnaev, Dr. Ronald Schouten, a Harvard psychiatrist who studies terrorism, sees what might be a classic portrait of a man vulnerable to extremist recruitment. He had failed at his dream of becoming an Olympic boxer and dropped out of college, disappointing his family and himself.

In recent years, Qaeda propagandists have “made a particular effort to recruit lonely people who are looking for a cause,” said Jerrold Post, a former C.I.A. psychiatrist now at George Washington University and the author of “The Mind of the Terrorist.”

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And this observation from Robert Reilly, one of America’s top experts on Islam:

Ty,

My only comment is that people need meaning in their lives — at the theological level, at the level of God.

The mantra of freedom untethered to any higher purpose translates as a form of materialism to most Muslims—and to many others as well. Therefore, Tamerlane, when he could no longer bear the meaninglessness of his life, decided upon submission to a higher purpose as it was an offer to him from the Islamists. Were there any competing offers at this level? Apparently not.

While there are some people, like Solzhenitsyn or Aung San Suu Kyi, who can survive without freedom because they have meaning in their lives, others cannot survive freedom because they have no meaning in their lives. Tamarlane had freedom in the U.S. but no meaning, so he chose meaning over freedom. His story had been replicated many times by Muslims in Europe and elsewhere.

I know you don’t discount this side of it.

Best,

Bob

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Finally, you may want to click on to this link to a New York Post piece by Ralph Peters, the retired Colonel noted for his very strong opinions. I disagree with Peters as often as I agree with him, but he is a skilled writer whose views are worth considering.

Click here: Lessons of Boston – NYPOST.com

Lessons of Boston

By RALPH PETERS  Posted: 10:37 PM, April 22, 2013

The superb work of our law-enforcement officials in the wake of the Boston Marathon bombing ignited a blaze of self-congratulation that obscured the event’s implications.

Yeah, we killed one fanatic and nabbed the other. But our dysfunctional system couldn’t prevent this latest Boston Massacre.

That carnage was a dirt-cheap terrorist triumph. Fanatics will take its lessons to their shriveled jihadi hearts:

Lesson No. 1: Two amateur terrorists can paralyze a major American city for days. The Tsarnaev punks generated global headlines, ran up millions in government expenses, punished a major metro-area economy and disrupted society. And now we’ve got a costly civilian trial to come for the surviving brother — with more headlines to inspire copycats.

We’re relieved that the two young terrorists were “brought to justice” and delude ourselves that we “won.” Uh-uh. At the cost of two expendable young thugs, a few guns and a couple of homemade bombs, radical Islam generated a bloodbath that created genuine terror on our soil.

Al Qaeda and its ilk have long used suicide bombers and doomed assassins to rupture societies in the Middle East, killing tens of thousands of Muslims (a fact we fail to exploit in our lame “information campaigns”). Now the Islamists are in the export business. Expect more of these low-cost, high-return missions within our borders.

Lesson No. 2: The best weapons against targets in the US are disaffected legal immigrants or radicalized native-born converts to jihad. Political correctness — a pathetic fanaticism of our own — and legal paralysis make it virtually impossible to stop legal residents such as the Tsarnaev brothers before they commit a crime.

Lesson No. 3: Our immigration system is one of terrorism’s best allies. Related to the last point, this is a case of just how idiotic a politically correct bureaucracy can be. The father of the Tsarnaev punks only had to declare himself an asylum-seeker afraid for his life in the Russian Federation and our consular officials fell all over themselves to get him to America.

If you’re a highly educated, ambitious West European who wants to become an American, your chances are near zero. If you’re a radical America-hater from a hostile region, all you have to do is shout that you’re a political refugee and we’ll give you residency and benefits.

There’s no reason that anyone from Chechnya should be granted a US visa. It’s a gangster mini-state (within the Russian Federation) at war with home-grown Islamists.

Lesson No. 4: The more open a society, the more targets it presents. We all failed to see the obvious. We’ve done a good job of protecting hard targets, from stadiums to government offices. But that only deflected the fanatics toward softer targets whose very randomness creates authentic terror. And don’t underestimate the appeal of butchering female athletes, who are almost as terrifying to Islamists as girls in bikinis.

Last month, Islamist fanaticism scored a resounding victory on the cheap. The effectiveness of our manhunt didn’t change that.

Ralph Peters is the author of the forthcoming Civil-War novel “Hell or Richmond.

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Final Reminder! May 16th Meeting

Keynes versus Hayek

 

A Debate and Discussion on

U.S. Fiscal Policy

 

With

Jerry O’Driscoll and Atul Minocha

 

The Ramada, Thursday, May 16, 9 am

 

“If all economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion” quipped George Bernard Shaw.

We do not expect to prove Shaw totally wrong, but we are confident we will provide a rather stimulating conversation on a topic that is very timely. Economists are divided with respect to how to resuscitate the stagnant American economy—some demand more government stimulus spending, while others say attention must be directed immediately at reducing the ballooning deficit—now over $17 trillion. The former argue that our poor state of education, infrastructure and unemployment demands that the “relatively minor and short term” issue of debt and deficits should not overshadow the critical issue of the U.S. regaining competitiveness. Opponents say we have allowed the government to freely print money and fund irresponsible projects like Solyndra, and now must bite the bullet.

O’Driscoll and Minocha will discuss, debate, and stimulate a conversation around the current US fiscal situation and what to do about it.  They are likely to approach this from two very different perspectives that might make Friedrich Hayek—the God of fiscal conservatism– and John Maynard Keynes—the apostle of activist government fiscal and monetary policy—proud.

Jerry O’Driscoll, a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, was Vice President at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and also Director and VP of policy analysis at Citigroup. He is a frequent contributor to many publications, including the Wall Street Journal, and appears on Fox News, CNBC, and Bloomberg. Atul Minocha (of CrazEconomics and Associate Professor at Sierra Nevada College), has extensive private sector business experience, including at Honeywell, Kodak, Cummins and Toyota. In addition to teaching and CrazEconomics, he is also engaged in the world of hedge funds, entrepreneurship, and business consulting.

Jerry earned his MA and PhD from UCLA; Atul graduated friom the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi, and has an MBA from Yale.

 

Please join us for what will be a very interesting discussion. A full breakfast will be served ($20 at the door; free for WWII veterans and students with ID), so recommend you arrive by 8:30 to enjoy some coffee and conversation.

Please RSVP on our website by clicking here or you may RSVP by phone (775) 746-3222 or email twcobb@aol.com. We are also now accepting credit cards at the door for your convenience.

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May 16th Meeting Announcement

Keynes versus Hayek

 

A Debate and Discussion on

U.S. Fiscal Policy

 

With

Jerry O’Driscoll and Atul Minocha

 

The Ramada, Thursday, May 16, 9 am

 

“If all economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion” quipped George Bernard Shaw.

We do not expect to prove Shaw totally wrong, but we are confident we will provide a rather stimulating conversation on a topic that is very timely. Economists are divided with respect to how to resuscitate the stagnant American economy—some demand more government stimulus spending, while others say attention must be directed immediately at reducing the ballooning deficit—now over $17 trillion. The former argue that our poor state of education, infrastructure and unemployment demands that the “relatively minor and short term” issue of debt and deficits should not overshadow the critical issue of the U.S. regaining competitiveness. Opponents say we have allowed the government to freely print money and fund irresponsible projects like Solyndra, and now must bite the bullet.

O’Driscoll and Minocha will discuss, debate, and stimulate a conversation around the current US fiscal situation and what to do about it.  They are likely to approach this from two very different perspectives that might make Friedrich Hayek—the God of fiscal conservatism– and John Maynard Keynes—the apostle of activist government fiscal and monetary policy—proud.

Jerry O’Driscoll, a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, was Vice President at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and also Director and VP of policy analysis at Citigroup. He is a frequent contributor to many publications, including the Wall Street Journal, and appears on Fox News, CNBC, and Bloomberg. Atul Minocha (of CrazEconomics and Associate Professor at Sierra Nevada College), has extensive private sector business experience, including at Honeywell, Kodak, Cummins and Toyota. In addition to teaching and CrazEconomics, he is also engaged in the world of hedge funds, entrepreneurship, and business consulting.

Jerry earned his MA and PhD from UCLA; Atul graduated friom the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi, and has an MBA from Yale.

 

Please join us for what will be a very interesting discussion. A full breakfast will be served ($20 at the door; free for WWII veterans and students with ID), so recommend you arrive by 8:30 to enjoy some coffee and conversation.

Please RSVP on our website by clicking here or you may RSVP by phone (775) 746-3222 or email twcobb@aol.com. We are also now accepting credit cards at the door for your convenience.

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Save the Dates for May Meetings

Keynes versus Hayek

 A Debate and Discussion on

U.S. Fiscal Policy

 With

Jerry O’Driscoll and Atul Minocha

 

 The Ramada, Thursday, May 16, 9 am

 

“If all economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion” quipped George Bernard Shaw.

We do not expect to prove Shaw totally wrong, but we are confident we will provide a rather stimulating conversation on a topic that is very timely. Economists are divided with respect to how to resuscitate the stagnant American economy—some demand more government stimulus spending, while others say attention must be directed immediately at reducing the ballooning deficit—now over $17 trillion. The former argue that our poor state of education, infrastructure and unemployment demands that the “relatively minor and short term” issue of debt and deficits should not overshadow the critical issue of the U.S. regaining competitiveness. Opponents say we have allowed the government to freely print money and fund irresponsible projects like Solyndra, and now must bite the bullet.

Jerry O’Driscoll (of the Cato Institute and formerly a Vice President at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) and Atul Minocha (of CrazEconomics and associate professor at Sierra Nevada College) will discuss, debate, and stimulate a conversation around the current US fiscal situation and what to do about it.  They are likely to approach this from two very different perspectives that might make Freidrich Hayek—the God of fiscal conservatism– and John Maynard Keynes—the apostle of activist government fiscal and monetary policy—proud.

 

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The Air National Guard

Affordable Defense in an Era of Defense Austerity?

 

Nevada ANG Headquarters, Thursday, May 30, 9 am    

 

The Nevada Air National Guard “High Rollers” have been deployed in support of the War on Terror for more than 10 years.  Over the last decade, the High Rollers have shifted from a “strategic reserve” to an “operational reserve” as the Air National Guard’s role has grown within the Department of Defense.  The value proposition the National Guard offers to the Department of Defense and the taxpayer may become an attractive solution as we enter a period of reduced defense spending.

Col Jeffery Burkett, the 152d Airlift Wing Commander, will brief the NSF on the role of the National Guard and its growing importance in an era of increasing threats and diminishing resources. He will discuss the relationship between USNORTHCOM and the National Guard, including some of the complexities between Title 10 and Title 32 duty status. Col Burkett will also discuss the mission of the 152d Airlift Wing to include the C-130 Airlift Squadron, the Intelligence Squadron, and the CBRN Enhanced Response Force Package (CERFP).

The brief will be held at the ANG center at the Reno Tahoe International Airport followed by a tour of the 152d Airlift Wing. More RSVP details and driving directions will be provided.

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No need to RSVP now–more information will be forthcoming prior to these events.

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