From: Your Minister of Enlightenment

SUBJ: Upcoming NSF/World Affairs Council Meetings

Colleagues:

We have three very interesting meetings coming up in September and early October.

The first will be with Werner Fornos, a widely recognized expert on global population issues next Wednesday evening.

That will be followed by a presentation by Dr. Tyrus W. Cobb on the National Security Council, sometimes regarded as the power center of the Administration, taking place on Wednesday, September 22^nd.

The next meeting will be a presentation by Mr. Jacob Dayan, the Israeli Council General in Los Angeles, on the morning of October 5^th.

The presentation by Mr. Fornos is titled, “Gaining People, Losing Ground: Balancing Population with Resources”. Winner of the prestigious 2003 United Nations Population Award, Fornos makes frequent national TV appearances and is often read in the major media. His talk will be the evening of Wednesday, September 8^th, at the Siena. Note that there will be a cocktail hour with the speaker prior to the event (announcement attached, no RSVP required). This presentation is sponsored by the local World Affairs Council chapter and the Northern Nevada International Center.

Here is some advanced information on the following two discussions. These are regular NSF meetings (just save the date for now, no response necessary yet).

Wednesday, September 22, 9 am, the Siena Hotel

Dr. Tyrus W. Cobb

Former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan

“THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: HISTORY, ROLE AND IMPACT”

Dr. Cobb served on the Reagan NSC from 1983-1989. His talk will cover the history of the National Security Council from its inception in 1947, how different Presidents used (or misused!) it, and what influence/impact it has.

Tuesday, October 5, 9 am, the Siena Hotel

The Honorable Jacob Dayan

The Israeli Consul General in Los Angeles

“The Israeli Worldview”

Mr. Dayan will lay out the threatening regional and global environment that Israel faces and how it intends to deal with perceived threats to its existence.

The National Security Forum presents

LARRY MARTINES

“The Mexican Drug Wars: Cartels, the Drug Trade, and the Spread of Violence to the U.S.”

Siena Hotel Ballroom, Friday, April 30^th, 8:45 am

Since the last presentation by Larry Martines on the Mexican drug wars and cartels, the violence has accelerated. Cartels are merging, leading to more powerful alliances, who are directing their weapons against other cartels, the Mexican security forces, and innocent civilians. The dramatic rise in violence is spreading into this country, leading to murder, rape and kidnapping of American citizens.

Drug gangs have laid waste to many cities, driving many ordinary Mexicans to seek asylum in the U.S. Serving as a police officer or anti-drug task force member is increasingly dangerous. The impact of the cartels is being felt more and more in the U.S., as the drug distribution routes have expanded into more than 200 American cities. Hispanic gangs in U.S. prisons form the nexus of future allies for the Mexican drug lords.

Larry’s PowerPoint talk will also assess the status of the Mexican government’s war against the cartels, covert and overt U.S. assistance, the significance of the cartel mergers, the growing connection to U.S. street gangs and cartel expansion into this country.

Martines retired from a major U.S. law enforcement agency as commander of terrorism/extremist groups investigations unit. He has served as a consultant to the CIA on classified matters, headed security at Hughes Helicopters, and instructed at several universities and law enforcement agencies. He is the former Director of the Nevada Department of Homeland Security.

Please RSVP (acceptances only) to this e-mail or by calling 746-3222. There will be a $15 charge at the door for the breakfast and presentation

The National Security Forum presents

LARRY MARTINES

“The Mexican Drug Wars: Cartels, the Drug Trade, and the Spread of Violence to the U.S.”

Siena Hotel Ballroom, Friday, April 30^th, 8:45 am

Since the last presentation by Larry Martines on the Mexican drug wars and cartels, the violence has accelerated. Cartels are merging, leading to more powerful alliances, who are directing their weapons against other cartels, the Mexican security forces, and innocent civilians. The dramatic rise in violence is spreading into this country, leading to murder, rape and kidnapping of American citizens.

Drug gangs have laid waste to many cities, driving many ordinary Mexicans to seek asylum in the U.S. Serving as a police officer or anti-drug task force member is increasingly dangerous. The impact of the cartels is being felt more and more in the U.S., as the drug distribution routes have expanded into more than 200 American cities. Hispanic gangs in U.S. prisons form the nexus of future allies for the Mexican drug lords.

Larry’s PowerPoint talk will also assess the status of the Mexican government’s war against the cartels, covert and overt U.S. assistance, the significance of the cartel mergers, the growing connection to U.S. street gangs and cartel expansion into this country.

Martines retired from a major U.S. law enforcement agency as commander of terrorism/extremist groups investigations unit. He has served as a consultant to the CIA on classified matters, headed security at Hughes Helicopters, and instructed at several universities and law enforcement agencies. He is the former Director of the Nevada Department of Homeland Security.

Please RSVP (acceptances only) to this e-mail or by calling 746-3222. There will be a $15 charge at the door for the breakfast and presentation.

Colleagues: First, an administrative note regarding our conversion of the NSF Forum to a website/newsletter.

We will soon be shifting the way in which you receive NSF commentary and meeting notifications. At present I am sending them out by my AOL, which has worked fine on the sending end (AOL allows me to send the emails, which numbers close to 400 now on our NSF list). However, on the receiving end, many members are not getting them. It could be because your servers are automatically rejecting emails sent to that many folks. Some may go to your Spam Folder.

I don’t know, but to insure this gets through the wickets I am sending this missive out in groups of no more than 35–horribly time consuming, but need to do it this one time.

Around May 1, thanks to Tony Lockard and Rex Barton, you will be able to receive the missives as a newsletter you “subscribe” to (no charge). We hope to do that automatically but will also send out instructions how to get on the list if the transfer doesn’t work. In addition we have a Beta website that looks real promising (www.nationalsecurityforum.net). More on all this soon.

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We have three very exciting events coming up in the next month, two in conjunction with our sister organizations in this area. The first two will be held at the Siena, and the third will be a dinner at the Nugget. I look forward to seeing you at these events, all focusing on different national security topics.

DR. CATHERINE L. MANN

THE U.S. IN THE WORLD ECONOMY:

PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED AND SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY

Wednesday, April 21, 7 pm, at the Siena Lupita/Panterra Rooms (2^nd floor)

A VIP reception with the speaker will be held from 6-7 pm in the Lupita Room. If you would like to attend that reception, please RSVP to NNIC@unr.edu ($15)

A flyer is attached providing more information on Dr. Mann’s presentation.

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LARRY MARTINES

MEXICO’S DRUG WAR (PART 2):

ON THE INCREASING VIOLENCE AND CARTEL WARS IN MEXICO,

AS WELL AS THE IMPACT ON THE U.S.

Friday, April 30, 9 am, the Siena Hotel

(Just a save the date now; no need to RSVP. More information to follow)

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GENERAL BOB ABRAMS

“THE NATIONAL TRAINING CENTER: PREPARING THE TROOPS FOR COMBAT OPERATIONS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ”

The Sparks Nugget, Wednesday, May 12. No host bar at 6pm, dinner at 7 pm ($38 per person). This dinner is open to all NSF members—we encourage you to join us in welcoming GEN Abrams, son of the legendary GEN Creighton Abrams (flyer and registration form attached).

Catherine Mann Flyer

AUSA Dinner with GEN Abrams Reservation

AUSA Dinner with GEN Abrams Flyer

Reference List

The National Security Forum presents

STEVE METCALF AND RICHARD HOBBS

“Israel and Iran”

“Nuclear Weapons, Surgical Strikes, and the Future

Of the U.S.-Israeli and U.S.-Iranian Relationships”

Tuesday, March 30, 9 am, at the Siena Hotel

Over the past several weeks there have been growing discussions of the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities should Tel Aviv believe that Tehran had gained the competence to produce a nuclear weapon. Could Israel successfully conduct such an attack? What would the U.S. position be? Will a tactical strike have the desired effect? What implications would an Israeli strike on Iran have for the global economy?

This question comes at a time of severe tension in U.S.-Israeli relations. There has been some terse language and awkward moments between the US and Israel, based on PM Netanyahu’s continued expansion of housing on the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Some would say it makes hypocrisy of the mutual goal of “land for peace”.   As the US-Israeli relationship proceeds, should it move in different directions?  Do we need to have more distance from Israel? Is it time for new directions with Iran? Is that possible?

Dick Hobbs and Steve Metcalf will address the tactical aspects of a strike on Iran’s nuclear capability, the anticipated results, and the potential cost and benefits of such a strike to the United States (financially and in terms of global security). They will analyze the long-standing US special relationship with Israel, including the question of how that relationship should evolve. They will also look at the complex issue of our relationship with Iran

There is a strong debate at the highest levels of US foreign policy over these issues.  We can anticipate a stimulating discussion and Q&A within the NSF as well.

Richard Hobbs is a retired combat infantry officer, professor, and businessman.  He has worked, taught, and written in the international arena for over 50 years, including stints at the Pentagon, the State Department, and in international operations for a major corporation.  He is a West Point graduate and Olmsted Scholar, and Docteur de l’Université in international law and relations from l’Université de Lyon.

Steve Metcalf is a former Army officer, investment banker, hedge fund manager, international finance specialist and lifelong student of foreign policy.  He served in the Pentagon, has worked extensively in the Middle East, and most recently returned from Iraq where he served as a deputy project manager and aviation manager. Steve is a West Point graduate with an MBA from Syracuse University.

There will be a sumptuous breakfast served ($15 for the talk and chow). Please RSVP (Acceptances only!) to this email or by calling 746-32

STEVE METCALF AND RICHARD HOBBS

“Israel and Iran”

“Nuclear Weapons, Surgical Strikes, and the Future

Of the U.S.-Israeli and U.S.-Iranian Relationships”

Tuesday, March 30, 9 am, at the Siena Hotel

Over the past several weeks there have been growing discussions of the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities should Tel Aviv believe that Tehran had gained the competence to produce a nuclear weapon. Could Israel successfully conduct such an attack? What would the U.S. position be? Will a tactical strike have the desired effect? What implications would an Israeli strike on Iran have for the global economy?

This question comes at a time of severe tension in U.S.-Israeli relations. There has been some terse language and awkward moments between the US and Israel, based on PM Netanyahu’s continued expansion of housing on the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Some would say it makes hypocrisy of the mutual goal of “land for peace”.   As the US-Israeli relationship proceeds, should it move in different directions?  Do we need to have more distance from Israel? Is it time for new directions with Iran? Is that possible?

Dick Hobbs and Steve Metcalf will address the tactical aspects of a strike on Iran’s nuclear capability, the anticipated results, and the potential cost and benefits of such a strike to the United States (financially and in terms of global security). They will analyze the long-standing US special relationship with Israel, including the question of how that relationship should evolve. They will also look at the complex issue of our relationship with Iran

There is a strong debate at the highest levels of US foreign policy over these issues.  We can anticipate a stimulating discussion and Q&A within the NSF as well.

Richard Hobbs is a retired combat infantry officer, professor, and businessman.  He has worked, taught, and written in the international arena for over 50 years, including stints at the Pentagon, the State Department, and in international operations for a major corporation.  He is a West Point graduate and Olmsted Scholar, and Docteur de l’Université in international law and relations from l’Université de Lyon.

Steve Metcalf is a former Army officer, investment banker, hedge fund manager, international finance specialist and lifelong student of foreign policy.  He served in the Pentagon, has worked extensively in the Middle East, and most recently returned from Iraq where he served as a deputy project manager and aviation manager. Steve is a West Point graduate with an MBA from Syracuse University.

There will be a sumptuous breakfast served ($15 for the talk and chow). Please RSVP (Acceptances only!) to this email or by calling 746-3222

We have several very interesting programs coming up this month and into April I wanted to let you know about, and I do hope you can join us.   In addition, thanks to SNCAT Television (community access) and especially Shayne del Cohen, our session on “Obama’s First Year” is available online. SNCAT made a video from that meeting, and you can access it at:   www.sncat.org/video.php?id=814 However, it is also on the home page, so just going to www.sncat.org and scrolling down the page will get one there.  Click on the picture and voila, like a juke box, it will select the show, gear up and play. Thanks, Shayne! //////////// Our next program, after tomorrow’s session on “The Obama Administration’s Nuclear Posture” with Keith Hansen, will be one that we are doing in conjunction with the Northern Nevada International Center and the local World Affairs Council.   Here is Carina Black’s invite to the NSF:   Please  join us for our March speaker, Dr. Richard Erb, next Wednesday, March 10, 2010 at 7pm at the Siena Ballroom (second floor).  The main event is free and open to the public.  If you would like to meet the speaker, please join us for a VIP reception from 6-7pm (same location).  There is a $15.00 charge for the reception and there is no need to RSVP.

Dr. Erb will be speaking on “A Bankrupt World: The United States in a Volatile International Financial System”, at 7pm at the Siena. Please note the VIP reception ($15), and that no RSVP’s are needed. This sounds like a great discussion and chance to meet with Dr. Erb. “A Bankrupt World” flyer can be found here: NNIC Presents: A Bankrupt World

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Save the Date for an exciting and very professional analysis of the potential crisis developing around Iran’s nuclear weapons program and Israel’s response. COL/Dr Dick Hobbs and Steve Metcalf will present a PowerPoint analysis and discussion on:

“ ”Iran-Israel:  Rational Evolution or Massive Destabilization?”

That event will be Tuesday, March 31, at 9 am at the Siena Hotel. No need to RSVP at this time–just an advance notice.

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In April we are planning on Larry Martines discussing the growing violence in Mexico around the drug cartels and the spread of their influence into the United States.

Lots of exciting programs! Hope you are enjoying your association with the NSF.

–  Ty

“A Bankrupt World” flyer can be found here:NNIC Presents: A Bankrupt World

KEITH HANSEN

Former National Intelligence Officer for

Strategic Programs and Nuclear Proliferation

Speaking on

“The Obama Administration & Nuclear Weapons”

The Gold & Silver (4^th and Vine Sts), 9:00 am, Wednesday, March 3

President Barack Obama reiterated his strong desire to move toward a world free of nuclear weapons.  He has called for ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which would prohibit any further testing of nuclear weapons, and for the total elimination of these weapons. This sounds good to many around the world (witness his Nobel Peace Prize late last year), but how realistic and feasible is it?  Will other nuclear weapons states be willing to give up their arsenals?  What about North Korea & Iran? The U.S. has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992—how do we maintain the reliability of our arsenal?

Keith Hansen will analyze the arms control and non-proliferation policies of the Obama administration and their prospects, including the effort to achieve a new strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia (START), the CTBT that VP Biden recently called on the Congress to ratify, and the dream of totally eliminating nuclear weapons (now supported by Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, and others). (Article on Biden’s important speech below).

Keith worked on nuclear arms control and proliferation issues during much of his 35 years in the US Government, including as an NIO at the CIA. He has written three books on these issues and is a consulting professor at Stanford. Now living at Incline, Hansen volunteers much of his time volunteering in Papua New Guinea, Ethiopia, and other developing countries.

Please join us for this timely discussion. Attendees (ACCEPTANCES ONLY) are asked to RSVP to this email or by calling 746-3222 (due to space restrictions we will be limited to 75 participants).

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Washington Times, February 19, 2010

Biden seeks test ban and end to all U.S. nukes

Bill Gertz

The Obama administration will move ahead with Senate ratification of a treaty banning nuclear tests that was voted down by Republicans more than a decade ago, Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. said Thursday.

In a speech setting out the administration’s arms-control agenda, Mr. Biden also said the United States will continue to pursue President Obama’s call for the elimination of all U.S. nuclear arms, but defended spending $7 billion in the coming year to repair an aging arsenal.

The administration is close to reaching a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia, and is nearing completion of a review of U.S. nuclear weapons forces, Mr. Biden said at the National Defense University.

“Our agenda is based on a clear-eyed assessment of our national interest,” Mr. Biden said. “We have long relied on nuclear weapons to deter potential adversaries. Now, as our technology improves, we are developing non-nuclear ways to accomplish that same objective.”

Non-nuclear weapons development includes the administration’s plan for an “adaptive” missile-defense shield and conventional warheads “with worldwide reach,” he said.

“With these modern capabilities, even with deep nuclear reductions, we will remain undeniably strong,” Mr. Biden said.

On ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, known as the CTBT, Mr. Biden said that gaining Senate approval for the pact is part of the administration’s efforts to limit the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

Mr. Biden said the CTBT was negotiated in the 1990s in an effort to stem the spread of nuclear weapons.

However, the treaty was voted down – but never completely defeated – by the Republican-led Senate in 1999. Critics argued at the time that the pact would undermine national security by encouraging nuclear proliferation while preventing the United States from ever conducting tests that may be needed to ensure the reliability of the deterrent arms.

“We are confident that all reasonable concerns raised about the treaty back then, concerns about verification and the reliability of our own arsenal, have now been addressed,” Mr. Biden said. “The test ban treaty is as important as ever.”

On Capitol Hill, a spokesman for Sen. Richard G. Lugar, Indiana Republican and ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Mr. Lugar is opposed to any test ban treaty ratification before the administration presents its new START deal.

“Sen. Lugar’s view is that in the arms-control arena, the first thing we need to see up is the START treaty and we need to deal with that,” said Andy Fisher, Mr. Lugar’s spokesman.

Mr. Biden said the unilateral moratorium imposed by President George H.W. Bush 18 years ago remains in place and nuclear weapons have been maintained through a program known as Stockpile Stewardship, which checks the weapons without underground tests.

An aide to the vice president said CTBT ratification is not the centerpiece of the administration’s arms-control agenda. “We’re not naive about where things are and how difficult it would be to get it passed,” the aide said, noting that it is not likely that the ratification would be sought before a strategic arms treaty is presented to the Senate.

The vice present said the U.S. nuclear complex, a nationwide network of costly storage facilities, laboratories and other facilities, was “neglected and underfunded” for the past decade.

The latest Pentagon budget includes a request for $7 billion to maintain and modernize the nuclear infrastructure. “Even in these tight fiscal times, we will commit the resources our security requires,” Mr. Biden said of the budget increase.

“This investment is not only consistent with our nonproliferation agenda; it is essential to it,” he said. “Guaranteeing our stockpile, coupled with broader research and development efforts, allows us to pursue deep nuclear reductions without compromising our security.”

The strategy also calls for improving conventional strike capabilities so that the reliance on nuclear weapons will be reduced, he said.

Mr. Biden said a major worry is that terrorists will obtain and use nuclear weapons.

“That is why we are working both to stop their proliferation and eventually to eliminate them,” he said. “Until that day comes, though, we will do everything necessary to maintain our arsenal.”

On the START negotiations, Mr. Biden said U.S. and Russian officials are completing the agreement, which he said would reduce strategic weapons to their lowest levels in decades.

“Its verification measures will provide confidence its terms are being met,” he said. “These reductions will be conducted transparently and predictably. The new START treaty will promote strategic stability and bolster global efforts to prevent proliferation by showing that the world’s leading nuclear powers are committed to reducing their arsenals.”

A U.S. official close to the talks said Russia is demanding linkage in the treaty to U.S. missile defenses, something the U.S. side is opposing. The issue may be resolved in a side agreement.

Moscow is also resisting U.S. calls for strict treaty verification measures, the official said.

The test ban treaty is likely to renew debate in the Senate and among arms specialists.

Former Pentagon official Frank Gaffney said that because of problems with the aging nuclear arsenal, “foreclosing the ability to do nuclear testing is the height of irresponsibility.”

The Senate in 1999 rejected the treaty by more than the needed votes “because there was an appreciation that nuclear testing was part of a robust nuclear deterrent and the Senate wanted to preserve that option,” Mr. Gaffney said. “They were right then and they are right now.”

Paul Kawika Martin, policy director of the anti-nuclear group Peace Action, said the group supports Mr. Biden’s call for a new START agreement and ratification of the test ban pact.

However, the group opposed efforts to modernize the arsenal. “Instead of spending $7 billion on facilities to upgrade nuclear weapons, that money would be more wisely spent on increasing the rate of dismantling the U.S. stockpile,” Mr. Martin said. “Fewer nuclear weapons makes Americans safer and sends the right message to the rest of the world.”